Trading Update: 14 March 2015

True Profits Earned in 2015 to date: US$12,076.17

All-time maximum profit earned since 2011: US$146,572.34 (new high water mark!)

Current drawdown from all-time maximum true profit earned: US$1,795.29

Change from last update: Up US$3,656.98

Directional stance: Portfolio is 59.06% bullish

An up week with a new high water mark. That's always nice as the P&L for the year is slowly chugging up. 

But there have been some volatile down days this week which clue us in to weakness in the market. Hence, it may not be viable to expect the S&P 500 to hit 2200+ any longer. Instead, my primary target is for the S&P 500 to top below 2200+, or more precisely below 2180. Thereafter, the S&P 500 will retrace probably 50% to 62% of the upmove from the bottom set in 2009 (at 666 - what a number!) to whatever level it the S&P 500 is going to top at soon, within the next few months. Yeah do the math and you will find that S&P 500 will be going down to 1200+ to 1400+ territory sometime in 2016. 

There is always a chance the bull market can still be sustained and can go to 2200+ as planned, or even higher to 2500+. But for now these scenarios do not look as likely. We will need to watch the behaviour of the market carefully, like how a patient doctor observes a patient's health statistics.

Ridiculous? Well, about two years ago some people laughed in my face when I told them S&P was going to hit 1600, then 2000. Let's see.

The typical reaction when I shared my market views.

A lot of shit can happen in a bear market. But bear markets are necessary to knock complacency off our population, and drive us to get lean and resilient, in order to build a better base to shoot for the next new high. Markets (and humans) progress in cycles and not straight lines up. Such is the way of life.

Markets move up in cycles.

But I am getting ahead of myself. Let's enjoy the remainder of the bull run and bank as much profits as possible first. I will be sure to ring the bell when the bear market is here. In the meantime, I will be deliberating on how to tweak my tactics like Brendan Rodgers for profiting in a bear environment.