Bear Market Probability Grows, Elliot Wave Starter Kit

1. Bears Coming Out to Party?

Rawwwwwr... went the bear last night as the S&P 500 encouragingly broke the first support level that needs to be broken to indicate that the market has topped. I continue to monitor the situation. Earlier on in the week the market chugged up but its movements were laboured and insignificant. Then at the end of the week a nice, big red day.

Behold my fangs

Portfolio wise, I sustained small drawdowns as the markets chugged higher early in the week, before ending the week positive with a gain of US$1k+ thanks to the movements on Friday (as you know, I have cautiously gone net short since last week). If the markets continue to fall, I will gradually be adding to my positions as the bear market grows in probability. As I mentioned last week, I am hardly using leverage for now and hence the returns I have (even though I may be correct in my directional call) may be somewhat muted.

2. The 5 Waves in Elliot Wave

Perhaps it is time to talk a bit about Elliot Wave. In Elliot Wave theory, putting it extremely simply, waves in the trending direction (can be up or down) move in 5 waves. 

The first wave is the "first mover wave", where for instance, after a long bear market between 2007 to 2009, nobody really believed the bulls anymore when the market bottomed in March 2009 and we saw the markets start to rally initially. People were still so fearful to re-enter the markets back then that the rally was heavily doubted and there was no widespread participation.

Then comes the second wave. It is the "wave of doubt" because the second wave actually retraces the movement of the first wave. This means it wipes out most of the first wave and creates doubt in the markets about the viability of the first wave. This is the role the second wave is meant to play. In a bull market, it would get people thinking "cheh, the rally in the markets last week (i.e. the first wave up) was just a smokescreen. Better don't enter the markets first!!" 

Then we come to the famous third wave of Elliot Wave theory. It is the "wave of recognition". It is the wave that finally reveals to the mass markets (and leaves no doubt in everyone's minds) as to what the true trend in the markets is. Third waves are usually forceful and ferocious and in bear markets they can be very sudden, leaving investors with little or no chances to exit. Remember the days in 2008 when AIG and Citi ran into problems and the markets were tanking 3% on some days? That's the heart of a bear market wave 3 for you. In a bull market wave 3s tend to be more serene events. In a bull market wave 3 you tend to see the markets going up steadily by 0.5% for many, many days in a row. Then a correction once in a while to keep the bears hopeful, before more up days. Nice and steady.

Wave 4 is the wave of consolidation. It is the period where the mass market have, seduced or awed by the force of the wave 3, are thoroughly convinced about the market trend and have entered the market because they want their share of the pie now (but sadly they are usually too late)! But in Wave 4s, the markets keep ding-donging without any net movement, and can frustrate many investors. Wave 4 is usually seen as the worst period to be in the markets. Even traders can get blue-black from all the whipsaws that wave 4s can throw at them and there are quite plenty who choose to sit wave 4s out. 

Wave 5 is the final wave where all the "stupid money" comes in. This is where you see your shoeshine boys and "ah-gong ah mah" investors come out to play in the markets because they have very belatedly heard about the market movements and want to make some money. Sometime in the wave 5 the smart money would have exited with profits in the bag, leaving most of the retail market to hold the fort. And while there are returns to be had, wave 5s are usually for suckers. While wave 5s are typically never as forceful as wave 3s and are usually of the same scale as wave 1s, there is still money that can be made out of them (getting long during the 2000 NASDAQ rally where the markets went parabolic would have bagged you a ton of money, provided you exited in time) but one must tread cautiously because at the end of a wave 5 is a trend change. 

The classic application of Elliot Wave is to wait for a wave 1 to clearly pan out in order to confirm the beginning of a trend. Then enter at the end of wave 2, and ride wave 3 for maximum profits at minimal risk. Sit out wave 4, and ride wave 5 cautiously with a tight stop. 

Also, the beauty of Elliot Wave is that it is fractal in nature. Which means for instance, within a wave 1, there are actually 5 mini-waves within that wave 1. And within each of the 5 mini-waves, there are actually 5 micro-waves inside. You get the idea. It's something like SIM cards, you have mini, micro and nano. Just that in Elliot Wave we call them Cycle waves, Primary waves, Major waves, Minor waves, and so on. In addition, if you look at the insides of every wave 2 and wave 4, they very generally tend to correct in 3 waves, i.e. a wave A, wave B and wave C. And to complicate things, wave As and Cs themselves consist of 5 smaller waves, while wave B consists of 3 smaller waves.

An illustration of the fractal nature of the waves. You see how a wave [1] is actually made up of 5 smaller waves? And how there are ABCs within waves 2 and 5 of the smaller waves, and for wave [2] as well?

Ok this is all a bit "jelat" already so we end off here!

Gone Short!

1. Finally gone short

After talking and talking about it, I have finally gone short in my portfolio. This is in line with the view that: 1) if we are still in an uptrend, we are in a final leg whereby the upside is capped about about SPX 2170 and 2) there is a decent chance that the bear market has already begun (although the rally later in the week shows the bulls still want to give it a good go).

Not too much change in the portfolio. Total year-to-date profits went down by a few hundred dollars from last week. If you think about it, this can be accounted to the commission charges when I exited some of my positions. The size of the portfolio has also been scaled down (to using almost zero leverage currently) pending confirmation of the trend change. Once we are very clear that we are in the bear market. I will upsize my positions again.

Not what I meant when I told you to go short.

2. Using IG Markets

Progress continues in my plans to integrate a second broker in my trading, for counterparty risk purposes. My eventual plan is to park all my bearish positions with one broker, and all the bullish positions with another. What I have done viz-a-vis IG Markets so far is that I have parked a thousand dollars into their account and will start executing a few small trades to test out their interface. When I have suffiicent liquidity in my savings account to put up full trading positions, I will migrate half of my positions to IG Markets. This is of course assuming that I am happy with their trading platform.

3. Penang

This post comes a little late as I am actually away on a business trip in Penang. Back in Singapore tomorrow. Updating this blog had to take a step back behind other matters I had to attend to. Well the weather here is either very hot or rainy so I'm very happy to hole myself up in the hotel when I have free time to chip away at my long to-do-list, nap, get some exercise done and listen to TED talks and Eckhart Tolle whilst other colleagues are out golfing, drinking or having Penang char kway teow and Penang laksa. In the face of limited time, life is about choices huh?

Ding Donging Markets, the Quest for a New Broker and More LKYisms

Happy Good Easter long weekend to everyone!

1. Markets still in limbo

The markets tried to rally early this week but did not manage to break any significant levels. Then it slumped on Tuesday and Wednesday before bouncing somewhat on Thursday, closing just 9 points higher than where we ended last week. Which means we are kinda in no-man's land with regard to whether we are still on the bull bus or if the bear party has already started. Essentially we are in a trading range between 2120 and 2040 on S&P 500. Break to the upside and the bull continues, break to the downside and we can start getting acquainted with Mr Bear (who has become somewhat a stranger after 6 long years of not meeting him).

Hi, do I know you?

The portfolio has bounced up US$4,061.94 and recovered some of the losses I was talking about last week. But the portfolio continues to be geared bullishly until 2040 is taken out on the S&P 500. If the markets do break 2040, there is a risk of large losses being sustained. But that's what we have to live with when we have a major trend change.

2. A New Broker, At Last?

The most astute readers will recall that way way way back in end January 2015 I mentioned that I was on the lookout for a new CFD broker that I could use in conjunction with my existing broker (City Index). This is to mitigate any concentration risk in a single broker, given that currently all of my trading capital is parked with just one broker (and we all know what happened to MF Global). Well after 3 long months of done-nothingness I got off my ass on Monday to start making some calls, and given that most brokers do not allow short trading to be done for the specific instruments that I trade, I was pretty much only left with one broker to "choose" from, and that being IG Markets. I had looked at Oanda, CMC, Saxo, Kim Eng Maybank and Philip but none of them were suitable. 

The IG Markets platform (note this is not a screengrab of my account!)

I've gotten the account open and what remains to be done is to inject funds into the account, which I will be doing over the weekend. I will then play around with the platform and execute a few trades to test the interface. If all things work out, my grand plan is to open new positions with IG Markets until there is parity between the size of my positions with City Index and IG Markets. The downside to this is twofold. First, when I want to change positions, I will now need to execute both with City Index and IG Markets separately. This would be a drag on how quickly I can switch positions. Second, my paperwork involved in doing up my trading records will effectively double as I need to calculate costs incurred under 2 trading platforms now. I'm damn lazy all about efficiency and so will need to think about how best to make use of the IG Markets account. 

3. LKY Redux

I found it very poetic that it rained during LKY's funeral. You can choose to think that the heavens teared for him, or that perhaps LKY wanted to give Singaporeans a final test of their resolve and dedication to see him off in the less than comfortable conditions. 

The rain led me to think of an election rally of his in 1980 at Fullerton, where at some point it began to rain and he shrugged the raindrops off his head like a bad-ass with nary a concern. He then had some tough words to say to the SIA pilots who tried to go on a strike back then. Very potent stuff. But despite our propensity to complain about how the ruling party can do a better job here and a better job there, and sometimes we even like to use our votes to give them a kick up the backside, LKY did say something in that rally that I can't really disagree with at all. I'm paraphrasing like crazy but in effect what he said was that: Yes we screw up sometimes. E.g. in this incident and in that incident. But at the end of the day, we get 80% of our decisions right. 

Screengrab of the rally on CNA. "And I'm prepared to start all over again!" says the man, in response to SIA pilots who thought he did not dare to disband SIA and start another airline if needed. 

And I think the man has a point. You can look at it from the perspective of how often a striker in football converts his goalscoring chances. An above-50% rate is world-class, and an average EPL striker probably has a chance-conversion rate of 20 to 30%. If LKY's "conversion" rate (i.e. proportion of "right" policy decisions made) has been 80%, I think we will one day look back and think, hey, 80% was a pretty darn good rate. And I'm saying this as someone who has not exactly been the biggest PAP fan in the past.

The Bear Market May Have Begun, Thoughts on LKY and My Final Reservist

1. Bear Market May Have Begun

The probability that the bear market has begun has increased, looking at the movements of the past week. We may not reach another new high on the S&P 500, as expected previously.

Unfortunately, my portfolio remains positioned long for now. That means this week I sustained five consecutive days of losses as the US financial markets were down for five days in a row. The portfolio is now down US$6,876.83 from last week, which means the previous week's gains have been wiped out, and then some. That is the nature of a major trend change. 

If the bear market is on now, where are we headed? I am looking for the S&P 500 to take a significant haircut to the 1200 to 1400+ levels before the bull market can resume. That is quite a spiral down so I've been telling my friends to be careful with their finances and to avoid changing jobs in the months ahead.

What are my next moves trading-wise? As my portfolio is still positioned to be bullish, I am looking for an exit point for me to rebalance my positions to take up a bearish stance. I am hoping that in the very short term, we have found a bottom and the S&P can rebound up a bit more before I do a rebalancing, so that I can reduce the US$6k+ drawdown somewhat. Yes I'm being greedy because the start of the bear can be very vicious, and may not give the bulls many chances to exit. I'm pushing my luck and Monday will be a day of tenterhooks watching how the futures pan out. Yep that's the "beauty" of a trend change.

2. LKY

I don't think I have any more to add to the numerous discussions and the endless broadcasts on TV and other media on him. All I shall do is to share what I wrote in the tribute book to LKY when I went down to one of the tribute centres earlier today, where I wrote this: 

"Dear Mr Lee

Thank you for devoting all of your life to build a Singapore that we can enjoy and live in today. I will not forget your efforts and will take inspiration from what you have done. Please go in peace."

I heard from friends that a typical workday for LKY would end at 2 to 3am, and the man would work on weekends as well. Such was his dedication and his grasping onto every second on the day to fulfil his mission makes me a little ashamed of how I have been making use of my time (erm have been playing SimCity a bit too much on my phone and trying to be an LKY in building my own utopian city). That was what I was thinking about when I said I would take inspiration from LKY.

Thank you, Sir. Singapore has lost a great man.

3. Reservist

When the news of LKY's demise broke, I was about to head to camp for the first day of my final reservist stint. How ironic because National Service was a baby of LKY and his cabinet (notably Goh Keng Swee). It's been 14 years since I first stepped into Pulau Tekong and then my unit, where we have completed 10 NS cycles together and are now placed on the military reserve. While I am happy that I have fulfilled my liabilities (bye bye mobilisations, in-camp trainings, IPPT and standing broad jump!), I will miss my army friends. Despite our pledges to stay in touch, I hope we do not break contact and never ever see one another again. Looking at pictures of ourselves when we were active NSmen, we were much scrawnier, naive, but smiling with bright-eyed optimism and wonderment. Time has doused some of our fire but most of us have turned out wiser, more contented and generally become better persons. It is beautiful to see how we have grown as individuals (even though most of us have also grown sideways). I look back in awe at the shit we managed to endure when we were so much younger and sigh. It is a bittersweet feeling. This, coupled with what happened to LKY, means it has been a week for reflection for me.

Trading Update: 21 March 2015

True Profits Earned in 2015 to date: US$18,270.90

All-time maximum profit earned since 2011: US$150,971.78 (new high water mark!)

Current drawdown from all-time maximum true profit earned: US$0

Change from last update: Up US$6,194.73

Directional stance: Portfolio is 56.03% bullish

A good week that ends with a nice figure for a new high water mark and no drawdown. Market is heading towards new highs again. The route to the top is currently plotted to be by way of three legs - S&P 500 will go on to 2120+, then down to 2070/2080+, then final top at 2170+. But market loves to surprise and will let us know if it decides to deviate - we just need to observe her very carefully and adjust our route as appropriate. It's all about trading the most highly probable scenario and not thinking too much, like Simon Mignolet.

My Property Hunting Journey

When it comes to financial matters, property ranks as a close second to trading amongst my interests. While I do not profess to be some kind of property guru (all I have bought so far is a matrimonial home), I have done quite a lot of research, viewed quite a number of units, and follow the market keenly as I am looking to buy another property for investment purposes. In the spirit of "sharing is caring", I am setting out the experiences of Mrs RetailTrader and myself in looking for our matrimonial property. 

Note: My account covers the purchase of a private non-landed residential property.

Phase 1 - Ascertaining the Baselines

When we decided we wanted to start looking for our matrimonial home, Mrs RetailTrader and I had to see where we both stood on the basics. It is critical to think through the basics, regardless of whether you are buying a place as a couple, with investment partners or by yourself.

The very first decision we had to come to was to decide the type of property we were going to buy. This intrinsically ties in with how much we were willing to spend on the home - our budget.

I subscribed to the thinking that a house was a consumption good and the more expensive the home we stay in, the higher the opportunity cost. The very rational personal finance school of thinking. And money saved from housing can be used for trading! But I had to admit the idea of staying in a condo also called out to me. After all, I had grew up staying in a HDB estate that was sandwiched between two condominiums that looked pretty sweet to me, so I always wondered what it would be like to stay in one like them.

Mrs RetailTrader also grew up in the HDB heartlands, but her family had since moved to landed which they have been staying for the past ten years or so. Since I was also a bit gian, we decided a condo would be an appropriate middle ground for the both of us. But as a nod to my financially prudent tendencies we agreed that budget-wise we were going to be relatively conservative. Phew first big decision out of the way huh!

We then had a long running debate about freehold vs leasehold. I was largely indifferent towards the two. I mean, all things being equal I would always take freehold, but the freehold status commands a price premium and to me whether that price premium is worth it is debatable. Mrs RetailTrader on the other hand was brought up on the "always buy freehold" mantra, to the extent this represented almost an absolute truism for her. Our decision on this point was that we would first try to source for freehold units only in our search, and see what comes up.

Next was location, location and location. 

Mrs RetailTrader and I did not live near each other. We are both family folks and envisage returning to visit our parents quite a bit, so we decided that a good starting point would be to stay somewhere in between our parents. She stays in the north and me in the east, so a compromise region would be somewhere between Novena, Bishan-Toa Payoh and Serangoon/Lorong Chuan. So we decided to focus on those areas for our initial search. 

Somehow despite our plans to stay near our parents, the idea of staying near to the CBD, where both our offices are, was also something that excited the both of us. Hence, as a wildcard option, we also decided to look for units in the Dhoby Ghaut/Harbourfront area to see if there was anything that fit our budget. 

The next biggie was buying used versus new. There was a divergence in our views for this one. Mrs RetailTrader likes fresh new things. "You never know what may have gone on in used units", she would say. Me, on the other hand, I like "what you see is what you get". You can study a plan of a development on paper for all you like, but it can never ever beat being able to step into the actual unit to see it, breathe it, smell it. I always think that when buying a unit off the plan, there will always be some factor which you will overlook (and regret). You could say it was a fear that was brought about by my consciousness of my lack of experience in property acquisition - but that was how it was then for me. So anyway yes, my preference was to buy resale and we were keen to get a unit that had already TOP-ed anyway so we didn't have to wait for our home to be ready. So our position became to look for TOP developments, but preferably not too old (not beyond ten years). 

Next was size. This one was easy. Mrs RetailTrader would have liked something with three full bedrooms if possible. I was more keen to keep the size smaller to keep the costs lower. We agreed to KIV this - if the psf (price per square foot) of a development was lower, we could afford to get a bigger unit, but if it was higher we would probably have to go smaller. But as a rule of thumb we agreed something like 1000 square feet would be a good starting point.

Then comes the matter of amenities. We both agreed that we would like to stay near a mall because of the convenience. And that there was a difference between staying near a small neighbourhood mall and a large regional one. We were not planning to cook so it would be nice if we had a variety of food options within walking distance to our future home. And I'm a huge sucker for having MRT near the home. And that's where my "buy the jewel of the estate theory" comes into play. 

The theory is that if you buy into a development that is near an MRT (I will discuss what "near" means subsequently - this is very relative!), near a decent-sized shopping mall with all the typical amenities and is the most desirable in the area, you cannot go too wrong with your purchase. 

Why is this the case?

My belief is that for most estates (except for those that are extremely out of the way, e.g. north of Ang Mo Kio, east of Marine Parade and west of Clementi), there will always be a pool of people who want to buy property in specific estates for their own personal reasons (e.g. the estate is near their family or near their workplace). So, as long as you buy a unit in a good stack in the most desirable development in any such estate, the "jewel of the estate", you will always have a ready pool of potential tenants and buyers waiting to buy/rent from you. In other words, everyone who wants to get a unit in XXX estate will always look to the jewel in the first instance. And desirability of the unit means less downward pressure when the market turns bad on you, compared to other developments in the same estate. 

The corollary to the theory is that, rather than buying one of the laggards in a "star" district, focus on buying the jewel of an estate which you can afford.

Ok brilliant, you say, but this then begs the question - how do you decide how a development is the most desirable in an area?

First, location takes the cake. All things being equal, the nearer a development is to a mall and MRT, the more desirable it is.

Second, the liveability of the development. Is there noise? Is the MRT line elevated or underground? Are there roads nearby? Schools, places of worship? Petrol station? Feng shui is too important to ignore - Is it sited on lower ground? Is the development at a T-junction?

Third, the appearance and condition of the development. This depends largely on the age of the development although the management of some developments can really screw up on the maintenance of the development. I have this test I call the "BBQ pit test" - take a look at the condition of the BBQ pit of any development you are viewing. Would you dare to use the BBQ pit there? There's also the "children's playground" test. Management councils that ignore these facilities are likely to be shabby in other aspects of the maintenance as well.

A simpler way to find the jewel of an estate is to look for estates with less developments. Less developments mean less competition for buyers and tenants. Some estates are very densely packed with condos, some less. For example, imagine an estate that only has one development that is within 2 minutes' walk to the MRT/mall, and the next development requires a 5 minute walk and is less liveable. You have found the jewel of the estate already!  

In the end we decided that our home should be no more than 500 metres away from the MRT and mall. 

Finally, I have this thing about the size of the development (i.e. the number of units in a development). I like developments to be large so there is more 人气 around. I find that developments with only one block tend to have puny swimming pools and the grounds are relatively poorly maintained. It's also depressing to me when I see the grounds of the development are always empty. Is it just me?

So we have pretty much covered all of the search factors you can input in Propertyguru. To sum up, we are going for:

• condo
• relatively conservative budget
• freehold preferred
• Dhoby Ghaut, Novena, Bishan-Toa Payoh and Serangoon/Lorong Chuan
• not older than ten years
• around 1000 square feet
• good-sized mall and MRT within 500 metres
• no small developments

So on one beautiful day when the sun was shining, and the birds were singing, I input our criteria onto the search bar on Propertyguru and waited for the search results to emerge...

Trading Update: 14 March 2015

True Profits Earned in 2015 to date: US$12,076.17

All-time maximum profit earned since 2011: US$146,572.34 (new high water mark!)

Current drawdown from all-time maximum true profit earned: US$1,795.29

Change from last update: Up US$3,656.98

Directional stance: Portfolio is 59.06% bullish

An up week with a new high water mark. That's always nice as the P&L for the year is slowly chugging up. 

But there have been some volatile down days this week which clue us in to weakness in the market. Hence, it may not be viable to expect the S&P 500 to hit 2200+ any longer. Instead, my primary target is for the S&P 500 to top below 2200+, or more precisely below 2180. Thereafter, the S&P 500 will retrace probably 50% to 62% of the upmove from the bottom set in 2009 (at 666 - what a number!) to whatever level it the S&P 500 is going to top at soon, within the next few months. Yeah do the math and you will find that S&P 500 will be going down to 1200+ to 1400+ territory sometime in 2016. 

There is always a chance the bull market can still be sustained and can go to 2200+ as planned, or even higher to 2500+. But for now these scenarios do not look as likely. We will need to watch the behaviour of the market carefully, like how a patient doctor observes a patient's health statistics.

Ridiculous? Well, about two years ago some people laughed in my face when I told them S&P was going to hit 1600, then 2000. Let's see.

The typical reaction when I shared my market views.

A lot of shit can happen in a bear market. But bear markets are necessary to knock complacency off our population, and drive us to get lean and resilient, in order to build a better base to shoot for the next new high. Markets (and humans) progress in cycles and not straight lines up. Such is the way of life.

Markets move up in cycles.

But I am getting ahead of myself. Let's enjoy the remainder of the bull run and bank as much profits as possible first. I will be sure to ring the bell when the bear market is here. In the meantime, I will be deliberating on how to tweak my tactics like Brendan Rodgers for profiting in a bear environment.

Goodreads 2: The 3 Types of People in our Working World (Part 2)

This is a continuation of Part 1 to this article, where I am featuring Christopher Ng's very thought-provoking article. In Part 1 we came to be acquainted with the three types of people we see in our working world: 1) the Grinders (people who slog and do real work), 2) the Minders (people who manage) and 3) the Finders (people who find business), and ended off with the million dollar question: How do you get from a Minder to a Finder?

Someone found the Finder ladder!

Building on what Christopher has said, there are three key ingredients to be a Finder:

1) Likeability. You cannot be a Finder without having mastered the art of likeability. Is this a skill that can be learnt? Even if someone is not naturally charismatic, are there things we can do to make people like us more? Just thinking out loud, the following should help somewhat:

• appearing confident and at ease with yourself, yet not cocky. Usually, the way to appear confident is to become more confident, but otherwise you fake it till you make it. People generally like being around people who are at ease with themselves rather than Mr and Ms Panic. Cockiness does have its uses at times but tends to attract "aggro" from insecure people - play a safer game and cut it out when you are with people you are not so close to (an exception is members of the opposite sex that you are not looking to do business with).

• being positive. Or perhaps, simply don't be negative, for a start? An easy way to do this: if anything you are thinking of saying is negative, zip your mouth. I'm not saying to turn into Mr "Hear Only the Good Stuff" like that Gold 90 FM advertisement last time, by all means stay honest, frank and raw with your closer friends and loved ones. But don't start criticising someone you just met ten seconds ago. Bonus points to you if you are a 开心果 bubbly person who oozes positivity and can turn rain into sunshine.

• making others feel good about themselves. I'm not asking you to suck up or praise the world out of someone. Just listening to what the person you are conversing with tells you, rephrase what they tell you in your own words to show you understand them, take the queue number before rushing to air your thoughts, make it about them and not you in your conversations.

• Christopher talks about cultural sophistication in his article. That's an interesting thought that I will go into detail more later in point 3 below.

• being generous. I love this quote which I recall being attributed to Li Ka-shing: "When you are poor, don't be calculating. When you are rich, let others pamper you." What a lot of truth about how society works in those few words! I do believe that what goes around comes around, when you have a bit of a reputation as someone who helps others, things do go round and come back to you. Here, I'm not talking just about money but also being generous with your time - taking the time to listen to people's issues and helping them out.

"When you are filthy rich, you can start spouting words of wisdom."

• maintaining a reputation for integrity, reliability and for being a (wo)man of your word. People like to deal with people whom they feel they can trust - people who say something and you know they will make good their word and act on what they promise. A reputation for integrity is like a vase that, once dropped, can never truly be restored to its previous pristine state. Never get caught lying, stabbing, trying to "smoke" someone or doing anything that would cast aspersions on your integrity (or at least weigh the risks carefully before you proceed), because the dirty word will get around faster than you know it and will come back and bite you in the ass. The not-so-simple folks out there would have noticed I said "a reputation for integrity" and not "integrity".

When all fails, there is always How to Win Friends and Influence People. A classic starting point for geeks whose inclination is to read their way to success.

2) Network. To be a successful Finder, you need a network of friends who can be your eyes and ears for opportunities, and grant you favours when you really need them. It's ugly but it's true. When you need a specialist's letter to siam something, an MC on the fly, a place in the top firm in whatever industry/school for your son, an introduction to a bigwig in the industry you work in, or simply when you need some recommendations, advice or some help with your work - you turn to your network.

A network can be built if one were to work on his Likeability. In order to have an affective network, you need to love people and have a genuine concern for people, and turn meeting new people into a habit if possible. Or failing which, make an effort to talk to people who appear right in front of your face. E.g. bumped into this colleague in the lift whom you've seen around a lot but never spoken to before? Why not just make the effort to say hi and see what happens? That's not something that will take up any of your time right? What, you would you rather play Hay Day on your phone?

Also, never network with someone with the aim of getting something from that person. Most people can smell your intentions from a distance. The way this should be done is to befriend people for its own sake, and think of things you can do for them (and not just what they can do for you). You never know when they can help you in return. It's too little too late when you only try to build your network when you need help imminently.

Christopher points out very astutely that being part of a large and powerful alumni gives someone a great ready-made network to conquer the world with. This is very true because you do see plenty of guys from alumni of ACS, RI and Hwa Chong in high places. And between helping out a fellow old boy versus a complete stranger, most of them would help the old boy. I am not from any of the three (and neither is Christopher who is doing well in life) so it is not to say that one is doomed if you don't come from any of the three. It's just that you don't have the tide on your side as you swim so you have to work a bit harder. Ultimately it's a head start that helps, but not having this is not going to be a showstopper.

So how do you build your network? Well you go back to the Systems of Success I blogged about, and apply the basic principles to the networking context. First, acquire knowledge on how to network. This post would serve as a starting point. The rest is Google-able. Second, you must want it badly enough - without initial motivation and drive, you will not succeed. Third, use that knowledge and motivation to create habits that will help to build your network, e.g. invite one new contact to lunch every week, challenge yourself to speak to a stranger once a week, reflect and work on your likeability. Make sure they are habits that can stick and are built to last. Finally, action those habits regularly, and you move slowly but surely towards having a decent network.

3) Cultural sophistication. This is an interesting one, which I mentioned above because it is essentially a subset of Likeability and Networking. Christopher's view is that someone who has cultural sophistication (e.g. a taste for fine wine and art) will be a better Finder. I love, love, love his hard hitting comment below:

"This level of ease and cultural sophistication is not cultivated within our school system although SMU's career office tries hard to instil this in its graduates. There is no PSLE subject called Charisma, English Literature may help as an O level subject but it's largely incidental and based on how much you apply yourself. An ACS kid can exude this cultural sophistication even if he gets 25 point for his O levels. A Bukit Batok Secondary school student who has hawker parents will not even know what a Cabernet Savignon even if he gets 6 points."

Absolutely golden.

My view is that this largely depends on the social strata of the people you operate with. If your business involves hobnobbing with the upper strata of society, that is something that definitely helps. You can stand your ground and not be intimidated at high-end settings where you are likely to encounter your target audience. Hence, this is definitely knowledge that can be useful in the circumstances. Conversely, if you are a contractor/butcher then obviously this falls away. 

All things being equal, this is still something that is good to have. It never hurts to gain some exposure to culture although I would not prioritise this over working on one's likeability and network. 

What I want to emphasis is that knowledge of culture gives you confidence at high end settings, and that is in fact the crux of it all. You can know of all the best wines in the world, and the intricacies of fine dining etiquette to equip you to behave impeccably at any formal function, but ultimately how you speak and carry yourself is the real deal. No point discussing DOCG wines and your tartare and pate if you keep fumbling over your words or boring the hell out of your contacts. A confident butcher with all the good traits I mentioned may be able to network better in such settings than a connoisseur who cannot speak well for nuts and is unlikeable.

"Hi, this wine good. My name Ah Tan, you?"

Going back to the point Christopher made about schools - if my emphasis is on priming my kid to become a successful Finder in future, I would rather send my kid to a school that places importance in training its students to speak and carry themselves well (ACS and SCGS seem to have a good reputation for this but please correct me if I am wrong - Edit: Mrs RetailTrader disagrees with SCGS!) than a school that is only academically focussed. But I believe that ultimately kids look to their parents and parents will always be the biggest influence on their kids. Look at a kid, then look at the kid's parents. If the kid swears, do the parents swear as well? All cut from the same cloth. Kids are our mirrors.

Somewhat linked to the sophistication point is the importance of dressing well. This is something I feel should be worked on before you start getting cultural vulture. For the guys, stop cutting your hair at your usual place if you still look like Aaron Kwok from the 90s or Ng Man Tat. Make sure your clothes fit you well - go to a tailor if you are not sure what a good fit entails. Don't wear flip flops unless you are at the beach, your void deck or the neighbourhood kopitiam. Stop wearing singlets. Stop wearing square toed shoes. No cargo pants. And lastly please don't ever wear your flashy "H" belts again. For the ladies, erm I dunno what to say, keep it nice and tight!

Nice and tight.

I would end this by discussing how this model fits for a retail trader who has quit the rat race.

A trader who trades for himself has no clients, so he is more of a Grinder-Minder. He has to grind out profits, and mind his trading system. But if his system is a passive one, he doesn't really grind so he's just a Minder. Of course, if he takes on clients then we add in the Finder aspects.

Trading room of a Grinder-Minder trader

It will be interesting to see how flexibly this model can fit for different occupations. Like all good models, hopefully it can be stretched to accommodate various kinds of job situations, instead of falling flat on its face.

Trading Update: 7 March 2015

True Profits Earned in 2015 to date: US$8,419.19

All-time maximum profit earned since 2011: US$144,512.84 (new high water mark!)

Current drawdown from all-time maximum true profit earned: US$3,392.77

Change from last update: Down US$1,127.27

Directional stance: Portfolio is 59.65% bullish

We were humming along nicely this week and new highs were made again at the start of this week. Until the markets decided the daily grind up is a bit boring and the S&P 500 threw a curveball last night to fall 29 points to close at 2071, after spending the majority of the past two weeks nicely nestled in the 2100+ region. Hence we incur losses this week. Well you have to respect the markets and enjoy a little action if the markets are up to it. What this means is the markets want to see a little correction, and last night's action may already have been all of that correction, if not we will see some more early next week. But already the divergences are building up to indicate a decent move up is going to happen after this little jaunt is over. 

While I am still looking for a target of 2200+ which is about 100 points of upside left, it isn't too much to be honest and this bull market will be coming to an end by probably in the next 3 to 6 months. What this means is I have to be prepared to put away my bull horns and start looking in the storeroom for where I put my bear paws. I think I last wore them in 2009. The strategies that have served me well in the past 2-3 years which I've had to tweak for the bull environment will need to be adjusted for the bear market.

Hey Mom, do you remember where I put my bear suit?

As we enter into the topping process, we can expect to see the market heave and ho to eke out a few more points for a new high, then correct, then heave and ho again to make marginal new highs, then correct. Rinse and repeat until all the bulls in the market have already joined the tug-of-war against the bears. When there is no fresh meat to join the bull team, the balance turns and the bears slowly will grow in numbers as more bears from the sidelines join Team Bear, and eventually the bears will outnumber the bulls. And then you put on the bear paws.

Are you Team Bull or Team Bear?

Goodreads 2: The 3 Types of People in our Working World (Part 1)

The honour of being featured in the second instalment of the Goodreads series goes to Christopher Ng who frequently churns out thought provoking articles on his blog. His specific article I would like to talk about today is called Some Thoughts on Career Management for the New Year! 

The article explores the idea that there are 3 types of workers in our working world. First, the grinders. They are the ones who take orders and slug it own, like the peons in Warcraft. At their best, grinders are proficient in their work, solve problems and are excellent at taking orders. At their worst, grinders grumble all day and suck at their work. Some clever folks are happy to remain grinders in their career and choose to focus on other aspects of lives.

"More work for me, my lord?" - The Peon-y Grinder

Next, we have the minders. They are one level above the grinders. They mind the grinders, manage them, lead them. Most grinders have to demonstrate some level of proficiency at their work before they can get to become a minder. However, not all technically proficient grinders make good minders. Some grinders who suck at grinding actually have the potential to become great minders, but may never get there if they do not impress the powers-that-be whilst they are grinders. A good minder can inspire and lead his grinders to achieve great things. A poor minder is detested by his subordinates and cannot get things done. For every minder, there are many more grinders and sometimes, a minder has his own minder and is hence partly a grinder at the same time. 

Some minders can be very special.

Beyond the minders, we have a far rarer breed. The elusive finders. Who are the finders? Finders evolve from grinders to minders who make the step to become folks who bring in business. Finders are magnetic people who can draw people towards them. To some extent they still do some management work but their core business is people: the clients. Finders love their clients and get their clients to love them. Finders get the deals for the company and keep the clients happy. The grinders do the work and act as the core revenue generators. The minders manage the grinders. The finders manage the minders but spend their energies mainly on deal sourcing and networking. It is common for the technical proficiency of finders to lapse somewhat as they focus less on doing the day-to-day grunt work. Such is the trade-off in being a finder. 

Finders - a rare breed

So far the idea of transitioning from grinder to minder seems fairly straightforward. As Christopher also points out (interspersing his thoughts with my own):

• society generally does not value grinders. Perhaps this is because there are too many grinders to go around. Unless you have a special skill, e.g. surgeon, or if you are exceptional at what you do e.g. sportsman, actor, you will get crowded out by the sheer numbers. How many engineers do we have out there?

• some EQ and communication skills are required to become a minder. Minders were once grinders and have to undergo some form of competition and "natural selection" at the grinder level to make it as minders. 

• All things being equal, a minder would generally earn more than a grinder in the same industry and enjoy more prestige. Hence for most working people, they would usually consider becoming a minder in their industry as a sign that they have made it.

But of course, Christopher goes further to look at how a minder can take a further leap to become a finder. That's what it's all about isn't it, as the finders are the folks who make the really big bucks. This is where things get golden and we will look into this in Part 2.