The Bear Market May Have Begun, Thoughts on LKY and My Final Reservist

1. Bear Market May Have Begun

The probability that the bear market has begun has increased, looking at the movements of the past week. We may not reach another new high on the S&P 500, as expected previously.

Unfortunately, my portfolio remains positioned long for now. That means this week I sustained five consecutive days of losses as the US financial markets were down for five days in a row. The portfolio is now down US$6,876.83 from last week, which means the previous week's gains have been wiped out, and then some. That is the nature of a major trend change. 

If the bear market is on now, where are we headed? I am looking for the S&P 500 to take a significant haircut to the 1200 to 1400+ levels before the bull market can resume. That is quite a spiral down so I've been telling my friends to be careful with their finances and to avoid changing jobs in the months ahead.

What are my next moves trading-wise? As my portfolio is still positioned to be bullish, I am looking for an exit point for me to rebalance my positions to take up a bearish stance. I am hoping that in the very short term, we have found a bottom and the S&P can rebound up a bit more before I do a rebalancing, so that I can reduce the US$6k+ drawdown somewhat. Yes I'm being greedy because the start of the bear can be very vicious, and may not give the bulls many chances to exit. I'm pushing my luck and Monday will be a day of tenterhooks watching how the futures pan out. Yep that's the "beauty" of a trend change.

2. LKY

I don't think I have any more to add to the numerous discussions and the endless broadcasts on TV and other media on him. All I shall do is to share what I wrote in the tribute book to LKY when I went down to one of the tribute centres earlier today, where I wrote this: 

"Dear Mr Lee

Thank you for devoting all of your life to build a Singapore that we can enjoy and live in today. I will not forget your efforts and will take inspiration from what you have done. Please go in peace."

I heard from friends that a typical workday for LKY would end at 2 to 3am, and the man would work on weekends as well. Such was his dedication and his grasping onto every second on the day to fulfil his mission makes me a little ashamed of how I have been making use of my time (erm have been playing SimCity a bit too much on my phone and trying to be an LKY in building my own utopian city). That was what I was thinking about when I said I would take inspiration from LKY.

Thank you, Sir. Singapore has lost a great man.

3. Reservist

When the news of LKY's demise broke, I was about to head to camp for the first day of my final reservist stint. How ironic because National Service was a baby of LKY and his cabinet (notably Goh Keng Swee). It's been 14 years since I first stepped into Pulau Tekong and then my unit, where we have completed 10 NS cycles together and are now placed on the military reserve. While I am happy that I have fulfilled my liabilities (bye bye mobilisations, in-camp trainings, IPPT and standing broad jump!), I will miss my army friends. Despite our pledges to stay in touch, I hope we do not break contact and never ever see one another again. Looking at pictures of ourselves when we were active NSmen, we were much scrawnier, naive, but smiling with bright-eyed optimism and wonderment. Time has doused some of our fire but most of us have turned out wiser, more contented and generally become better persons. It is beautiful to see how we have grown as individuals (even though most of us have also grown sideways). I look back in awe at the shit we managed to endure when we were so much younger and sigh. It is a bittersweet feeling. This, coupled with what happened to LKY, means it has been a week for reflection for me.