All-time maximum profit earned since 2011: US$135,976.98
Current drawdown from all-time maximum true profit earned: US$20,536.58
Change from last update: Down US$12,672.32
Directional stance: Portfolio is 66.33% bullish
Holy moly! What a dreadful week. Look at those red figures!
Markets: Last week, I mentioned that there was a good chance the S&P 500 has bottomed, and an outside chance that we will hit the low 1900s before bottoming up for the next move up.
You can see what happened by looking at the new weekly candlestick chart of the S&P 500 I have put up on the sidebar. A big fat red candle formed this week taking the S&P to a low of 1989 for the week, and closing at 1994 for the week. The S&P 500 keeps getting drawn to the 1990s pivot like a magnet. Pivots can usually be strong support but if tested too many times they become likelier to give way and if they do, it means there is plenty of room to move down. Certainly, we are currently only 5 points away from seeing fresh short-term lows. The odds that we are going lower have increased so we need to brace ourselves for a rough ride down before we see sunshine.
Portfolio: What I said last week holds: If we see a further correction down to the low 1900s, that would mean for short term pain for the next two weeks or so before we see "green shoots" in the portfolio.
Currently it's red, red wine. Like SMOL pointed out, CNY is coming and red is appropriate ;) And during CNY last year, I was experiencing a drawdown of a similar quantum. History rhyming again?
Flu: The worst of the flu is thankfully over, but I am just left with some lingering mucus in the nose from time to time, and a propensity to cough when speaking from time to time. A friend said he could "smell my flu" last night (to clarify, we were only speaking across a table and doing nothing else). Erm, ok. The flu is certainly taking its own sweet time to get out of my life but I will give it the time it wants. Maybe my body is trying to time my full recovery with that of the markets?
Primed for new highs?
Weight: Seeing that it's been a bad time in the markets, I have decided to look at another kind of chart. What's that? Certainly looks more bullish than the S&P 500 currently. But that's actually a chart showing my weight for the past year. Despite my best efforts to trim down on the fats, my weight seems to have "bottomed" (lol) and rebounded to near the "previous highs". While I can choose to blame the latest upswing on the stupid flu, whatever, it's time to shake it off!
Brokers: A friend highlighted to me that I have excess concentration risk in a single broker. Duly noted given that the portfolio size has grown and a broker wipeout would set me back many years in savings. As I use CFD brokers (currently City Index), I am going to give the big boys in the Singapore CFD space (i.e. Oanda, CMC, IG Markets, Saxo and if I'm really desperate, Philip because their really antiquated platform haunts me till today) a call to see if they permit shorting of the leveraged ETFs that I use. If so, I am going to park future funds in each new broker I can find until I have an even distribution amongst all of the brokers. If anyone has any experiences on Singapore CFD brokers to share, please let me know!
Romney: I'm a fan of Mitt Romney because the man speaks so smooth like a seasoned used car salesman and gets things done. Isn't that all you need to succeed in life? While he came from a comfortable background, he took his wealth to greater levels in his days at Bain Capital. Unlike other politicians in the picture today, some of whom were previous law lecturers without executive experience, Romney was a guvnor and had to organise the Winter Olympics 2012 under difficult circumstances (as it was held shortly after the September 11 attacks on World Trade Centre). A self-made man and a hero for me.
Best man never to make President?
So it's sad when I read that Romney has announced that he will not be running for President in 2016. In my book, one of the greatest men never to have taken the highest office. I suspect at the back of his mind though, a third failed campaign might have broken some part of him. I would have thought that part of the reason why he decided not to run was because after meeting Jeb Bush last week, he thought that Jeb, the other front-runner at the time, could get the job done, but it doesn't help that people have pointed out that Romney has in his statement announcing that he is not running, made some jabs at Jeb. Some say Romney is going to align himself with Chris Christie (another ex-lawyer!).
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